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NHC Tropical Weather Outlook Text



971 ABNT20 KNHC 181315 TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 915 AM EDT Tue Mar 18 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

$$ Forecaster Hagen

Probability Of TC Genesis

Model Based Probabilty of Tropical Cyclone Genesis

Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability

Tropical Atlantic GOES-East

Tropical Atlantic GOES-East

SFWMD Radar

Radar Image

Lightning Strike Density


Vertical Shear

10 m/s is approximately 20 knots or 22 mph.

Sea Surface Temperatures

30 ° C is approximately 86 ° F

Saharan Air Layer (SAL)

Image Credit: CIMSS - Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies


Madden - Julian Oscillation

EURO based (ECMF) MJO forecast Euro Based MJO Forecast

Prevailing Cyclone Tracks

Prevailing tracks for this month

Storm Classification, Wind speed and Surge

Storm TypeWind (Mph)Surge (ft)
Tropical Depression<380
Tropical Storm39–730-3
Cat 174–954–5
Cat 296–1106–8
Cat 3111–1299–12
Cat 4130–15613–18
Cat 5≥157>18

Fronts Days 1-3

Fronts 1-3 Day

Fronts Days 3-7

Fronts 3-7 Day

ENSO-neutral is favored through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2025 (74% chance during June-August), with chances exceeding 50% through August-October 2025.(According to the CPC)

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