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NHC Tropical Weather Outlook Audio

NHC Tropical Weather Outlook Text



715 ABNT20 KNHC 270504 TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles: An area of disturbed weather over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean is expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave during the next several days. Some development of this system is possible while it approaches the Lesser Antilles during the early to middle part of next week and moves generally west-northwestward near the Greater Antilles towards the latter part of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$ Forecaster Reinhart

Probability Of TC Genesis

Model Based Probabilty of Tropical Cyclone Genesis

Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability

Tropical Atlantic GOES-East

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SFWMD Radar

Radar Image

Lightning Strike Density


Vertical Shear

10 m/s is approximately 20 knots or 22 mph.

Sea Surface Temperatures

30 ° C is approximately 86 ° F

Saharan Air Layer (SAL)

Image Credit: CIMSS - Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies


Madden - Julian Oscillation

EURO based (ECMF) MJO forecast Euro Based MJO Forecast

Prevailing Cyclone Tracks

Prevailing tracks for this month

Storm Classification, Wind speed and Surge

Storm TypeWind (Mph)Surge (ft)
Tropical Depression<380
Tropical Storm39–730-3
Cat 174–954–5
Cat 296–1106–8
Cat 3111–1299–12
Cat 4130–15613–18
Cat 5≥157>18

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