NHC Tropical Weather Discussion



000 AXNT20 KNHC 251738 TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Oct 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Epsilon is centered near 44.3N 49.4W at 25/1500 UTC or 212 nm SE of Cape Race Newfoundland moving ENE at 30 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Scattered moderate convection is mostly N of the center from 44N-50N between 46W-55W. Little change in strength is expected today and Epsilon is forecast to become a large and powerful extratropical cyclone by tonight. Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, portions of the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National Hurricane Center at website-https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Epsilon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Storm Zeta is centered near 17.8N 83.8W at 25/1500 UTC or 252 nm SSE of the western tip of Cuba. Zeta is stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous strong convection is from 14N-19N between 82W-86W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 10N-21N between 75W-90W. Zeta is nearly stationary, but a generally northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will pass south of western Cuba early Monday and move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula or the Yucatan Channel late Monday, move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and reach the central Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Zeta could become a hurricane by the time it moves near or over the Yucatan Peninsula late Monday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest on Zeta NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 35W from 03N to 15N, moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted where the wave meets the ITCZ, particularly from 05N-12N between 30W-40W.

A tropical wave is located along 51W/52W from 06N to 20N, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N-19N between 46W-56W. This convection is being enhanced to the west by an upper-level trough with an axis just E of Barbados. Fresh winds are also accompanying this wave.

A tropical wave is across the central Caribbean with an axis along 73W, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from Guinea near 10N14W to 09N20W. The ITCZ continues from 09N20W to 09N34W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 08N36W and continues to N Brazil near 03N51W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is from 04N-11N between 40W-45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Zeta in the western Caribbean Sea. This system is forecast to move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and reach the central Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday. More exactly, Zeta will move to 18.4N 84.1W this evening, 19.2N 85.1W Mon morning, 20.3N 86.7W Mon evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 21.9N 88.7W Tue morning, 24.0N 90.3W Tue evening, and 27.0N 90.5W Wed morning. Zeta will weaken to a tropical depression while moving inland near 35.0N 85.5W by early Thu.

As of 25/1500 UTC, a stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 31N85W to the central Gulf near 24N90W to 22N94W to N of Tampico Mexico near 23N98W. The front is void of precipitation. The front will dissipate tonight. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over S Florida and the Straits of Florida. Looking ahead, another cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf early on Wed followed by fresh to strong winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Zeta in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Zeta is expected to produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds across central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan Peninsula, and adjacent waters through Wednesday, with localized amounts of 12 inches possible.

Fresh winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft will prevail east of the Windward Islands and in the E Caribbean into mid-week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Epsilon. Large swells generated by Epsilon, located well N of the forecast area, will continue to impact the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas into tonight, and will also affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

A couple of tropical waves are between the W coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please, see Tropical Waves section for details.

A surface trough is analyzed N of the Bahamas from 29N71W to 28N75W. Scattered moderate convection is from 22N-31N between 71W-79W, and is being enhanced by upper level diffluence.

A 1022 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 32N63W. A 1031 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 34N32W. Fresh to locally strong E winds are occurring from 16N-24N E of 55W. Strong NE winds are occurring between Western Sahara and the Cabo Verde Islands.

Tropical Storm Zeta will remain west of the area, but will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to South Florida, the Florida Straits, and adjacent waters into mid-week.

$$ Formosa