NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

689 AXNT20 KNHC 060844 TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Fri Mar 6 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure and and the Colombian low will support fresh to near gale-force trades across the central and eastern Caribbean through Mon. Winds offshore of Colombia will pulse to gale-force during the overnight hours through Sat night. Seas of 8 to 12 ft are expected with the strongest winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W, then extends southwestward to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 00N35W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 04N between 20W and 31W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Surface troughs are analyzed over the north-central Gulf, the western FL Peninsula, and the northern Yucatan Peninsula. All three troughs are supporting the development of scattered moderate convection along and near each trough axis. Otherwise, mostly moderate trades prevail across the Gulf, with locally fresh to strong trades occurring near the FL Straits and offshore the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are 4-7 ft through the FL Straits, and 2-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will extend a broad ridge southwestward into the Gulf through early next week. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure over Mexico will support mainly moderate to fresh E to SE winds basin-wide, pulsing to fresh to strong near the northern Yucatan in the evenings. Seas will be slight to moderate through the forecast period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean.

Fresh to strong winds are across the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds of 25 to 35 kt offshore Colombia, where seas are in the 8 to 12 ft range. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas dominate the eastern Caribbean with moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas over the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong winds are filling through the Windward Passage from the Atlantic.

For the forecast, a ridge of high pressure will prevail N of the area into the weekend. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to near gale-force trades across the central and eastern Caribbean through early next week. Winds offshore of Colombia will pulse to gale-force during the overnight hours through Sat night. Fresh to strong NE winds will pulse in the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba through Sat evening. In the Gulf of Honduras, fresh to strong winds will pulse at night through Sun night, then moderate to fresh thereafter. Rough seas in fresh easterly trade wind swell over the tropical N Atlantic will continue through Tue.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A ridge dominates the Atlantic forecast region, with a 1037 mb high pressure located NE of the Azores, and a 1028 mb high pressure situated in the vicinity of Bermuda. Under the influence of this ridge, fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas are observed per scatterometer and altimeter data across much of the waters E of 50W. Moderate to fresh winds dominate the area S of 25N and W of 50W, with seas to 8 ft E of the Bahamas. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere, except fresh to strong NE-E winds N of a shear line from northern Morocco to just S of the Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail S of 25N through Tue night, reaching strong speeds N of Hispaniola into the Windward passage at times. Rough seas will prevail within these winds and E of the central and southern Bahamas through Tue. Moderate or weaker winds can be expected elsewhere across the region.

$$ Lewitsky