NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

000 AXNT20 KNHC 090952 TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Mon Nov 9 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A 997 mb low pressure is centered near 30N49W, moving NE at 10-15 kt. A warm front extends from the low to 24N30W. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed gale force SW winds occurring in the SE quadrant of the low, where buoy and altimeter data indicated seas of 8 to 16 ft in mixed swell. Across the remainder quadrants of the low, a broad zone of strong to near-gale force winds cover a region from 20N to 31N between 36W and 61W. Buoy and altimeter data suggest that seas in this area are 8 to 13 ft in mixed NE and SW swell. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring mostly to east of this deep-layered low pressure system, from 25N to 31N between 40W and 50W. The low will continue to move east-northeastward, and accelerate, moving east of 35W by Tue night. The broad zone of strong to gale force SW winds occurring with the low will shift in synch with the low through Tue, generating very rough to high seas to around 20 ft before exiting the forecast area.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.html

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic waters near 10N14W to 08N20W. The ITCZ extends from that point to 06N55W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A former weakening stationary front has dissipated and in its place a remnant trough extends across the Florida Straits. High pressure is building in the wake of the front, with a weakness analyzed as a surface trough extending along the NE Mexico offshore waters, and generating scattered showers in that area. Moderate to fresh ESE winds and moderate seas in the 4 to 7 ft range are W of 90W while light to gentle winds and slight seas are elsewhere E of 90W.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue building across the area. Fresh NE winds prevail across the western half of the basin, and moderate NE winds are E of 90W. These winds will diminish to light to gentle by midweek. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf on Thu and rapidly shift across the Gulf basin, moving SE of the area Fri. The front will be followed by fresh to strong winds and building seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Due to the gale-force low northeast of the Caribbean, the pressure gradient across forecast waters remains weak, promoting only gentle to moderate trade winds across the basin and seas of 2-4 ft. A surface trough remains offshore NE Honduras, generating scattered heavy showers over the eastern Honduras offshore waters.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the basin will result in moderate or weaker trade winds, along with slight to moderate seas, through today. Winds will strengthen over the central Caribbean by Tuesday and then prevail through the week. A cold front may enter the NW Caribbean Fri, followed by moderate to fresh winds and building seas.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning.

A cold front extends from Bermuda to the NW Bahamas where it transitions to a surface trough to the Florida Straits. West of 62W, winds are light to gentle and seas are moderate to 7 ft. Otherwise, a cold front is moving across the Canary Islands to 23N29W where it becomes warm to the low center in the Special Features. Moderate to fresh NW winds and seas to 11 ft are behind this front to 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the strong NW winds and rough to very rough seas that cover the waters east of 63W will decrease from west to east through midweek, as the gale low shifts further from the forecast waters. The W Atlantic front will move eastward over the waters N of 25N through the middle of the week. Another, stronger, cold front will enter the NW waters the end of the week, ushering in fresh to strong winds and building seas.

$$ ERA