NHC Atlantic
Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
Link
000
ABNT20 KNHC 280513
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Philippe, located several hundred miles east of the northern
Leeward Islands.
Central Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization in
association with an area of low pressure located roughly halfway
between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development, as long as this system remains far enough removed from
Tropical Storm Philippe to its west. A tropical depression or storm
is expected to form in the next day or so while the system moves
northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. Additional
information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Bucci
Summary for Tropical Storm Philippe (AT2/AL172023)
Link
...PHILIPPE EXPECTED TO DRIFT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS... ...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS...
As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 28
the center of Philippe was located near 18.8, -54.6
with movement WNW at 5 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Tropical Storm Philippe Public Advisory Number 20
Link Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 28 2023
000
WTNT32 KNHC 280900
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 AM AST Thu Sep 28 2023
...PHILIPPE EXPECTED TO DRIFT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND
PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 54.6W
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this
system.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 54.6 West. Philippe is
moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow
west-northwestward to westward motion is forecast during the next
day or so, followed by a slower westward to west-southwestward
motion by this weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so,
with slow weakening forecast this weekend.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Philippe may produce 1 to 3 inches of rain across the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and portions of Puerto
Rico this weekend and into early next week. Heavy rainfall from
Philippe may produce isolated urban and small stream flooding
impacts.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Bucci
Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Advisory Number 20
Link Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 28 2023
000
WTNT22 KNHC 280900
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
0900 UTC THU SEP 28 2023
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 54.6W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 130SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE 120SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 54.6W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 54.4W
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.1N 55.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.3N 56.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 20NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 19.2N 56.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 0SW 20NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 18.9N 57.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 10NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 18.5N 57.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 18.0N 58.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 18.2N 59.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 19.0N 60.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 54.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI
Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Discussion Number 20
Link Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 28 2023
684
WTNT42 KNHC 280900
TCDAT2
Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 AM AST Thu Sep 28 2023
Philippe remains a disorganized, sheared storm. Deep convection
has continued through the night to the southeast of the estimated
low-level center. Imagery from a 0525 UTC satellite microwave pass
showed a decent curved band associated with this convection in the
89 GHz channel. Unfortunately, ASCAT missed the storm entirely.
The initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory, closest
to the TAFB Dvorak estimate.
There is still low confidence in Philippe's track forecast. As
stated in previous advisories, the future location of the storm is
closely linked to its structure and intensity. Should Philippe
remain a weaker, shallower cyclone, it is more likely to follow the
low-level westerly to southwesterly flow. This advisory favors that
scenario and shows the storm slowly drifting generally westward to
southwestward through day 4. By day 5, global models are suggesting
a trough to the north will lift Philippe or its remnants
northwestward. A complicating factor to this track forecast is the
proximity of an area of disturbed weather to the east of the
cyclone. Some models are still showing a binary interaction between
the two systems, which will largely depend on the strength of each.
Significant changes have been made to the most recent track
forecast, that are largely related to a slower westward progression
of Philippe. Still, this forecast is a blend of the previous
advisory and the latest model guidance. Further adjustments may be
required in subsequent advisories.
Philippe is in an environment with moderate southwesterly vertical
wind shear and lower, upshear, mid-level relative humidities. These
conditions are likely to inhibit intensification in the near-term
time frame. In about 48 h, global models predict the vertical wind
shear to increase and likely cause Philippe to gradually weaken
through the forecast period. However, there remains
higher-than-average uncertainty in the intensity forecast. The
latest NHC forecast still calls for Philippe to become a remnant low
by day 4.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/0900Z 18.8N 54.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 19.1N 55.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 19.3N 56.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 19.2N 56.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 18.9N 57.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 30/1800Z 18.5N 57.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 18.0N 58.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 18.2N 59.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 03/0600Z 19.0N 60.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Bucci
Tropical Storm Philippe Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
Link Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 28 2023
548
FONT12 KNHC 280900
PWSAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
0900 UTC THU SEP 28 2023
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6)
GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5)
DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI
Tropical Storm Philippe Graphics
Link
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 28 Sep 2023 09:03:11 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 28 Sep 2023 09:22:23 GMT
